EPIDEMIOLOGY AND HEALTH DATA INSIGHTS
Original Article
Jun 21, 2026 5 4

Understanding Cardiovascular Mortality and Disability in Central Asia: A GBD-Based Analysis and Forecast to 2050

Gulnur Zhakhina 1 * ,
Ruslan Akhmedullin 1,
Anara Abbay 1,
Elmira Iskandirova 2,
Natalya Glushkova 3,
Zhanar Rsaliyeva 4,
Ainash Oshibayeva 5,
Gulnaz Nuskabaeva 6,
Elnur Farajov 7,
Mohamed Aljofan 1,
Amina Rakisheva 8,
Abduzhappar Gaipov 1 *
1 Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan2 Department of Internal Medicine, Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan3 Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Evidence-Based Medicine, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan4 Department of Gastroenterology and Nephrology, Hematology and Hepatology, State Municipal Enterprise on the Right of Economic Management "City Hospital No. 2" of the Health Department of the City of Shymkent, Shymkent, Kazakhstan5 Department of Science and Strategic Development, Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan6 Department of Medicine, Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan7 Department of Nephrology, Mediland Hospital, Baku, Azerbaijan 8 Department of Medicine, Kenzhegali Sagadiev University of International Business, Almaty Kazakhstan* Corresponding Author
Epidemiology and Health Data Insights, 2(4), 2026, ehdi044, https://doi.org/10.63946/ehdi/18794
Publication date: Jun 21, 2026
Full Text (PDF)

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remain the leading cause of mortality and disability in Central Asia. This study analyzes trends in CVD burden across nine countries from 1990 to 2021, identifies major subtypes, explores sex and country-level disparities, and forecasts trends through 2050.
Methods: We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study to assess age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASYRs) for CVDs and their subtypes in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Forecasts were generated using GBD reference and alternative risk-reduction scenarios.
Results: In 2021, the average ASDR for CVDs in the region was 436.1 per 100,000 population, nearly twice that for respiratory infections and tuberculosis. Ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke accounted for 89% of total CVD deaths. Turkmenistan reported the highest ASDR (552.2 per 100,000), while Armenia reported the lowest (314.8 per 100,000). Kazakhstan had the highest stroke-related ASDR at 163.0 per 100,000. Men experienced 1.5 times higher ASDR (538.2 vs. 365.7 per 100,000) and ASYR (10966.6 vs. 6807.5 per 100,000) than women. While most countries reduced ASDRs from 1990 to 2021, Uzbekistan showed a 0.7% increase. Forecasts project a regional decline in ASDR by 2050 in both improved-risk-factor and reference scenarios.
Conclusion: CVDs remain the dominant health burden in Central Asia. Evidence-based prevention, improved hypertension control, and health system strengthening are essential to achieving future gains and reducing premature cardiovascular mortality.

KEYWORDS

Cardiovascular Disease Central Asia Global Burden of Disease Age-Standardized Death Rate Disability-Adjusted Life Years Health Projections

CITATION (Vancouver)

Zhakhina G, Akhmedullin R, Abbay A, Iskandirova E, Glushkova N, Rsaliyeva Z, et al. Understanding Cardiovascular Mortality and Disability in Central Asia: A GBD-Based Analysis and Forecast to 2050. Epidemiology and Health Data Insights. 2026;2(4):ehdi044. https://doi.org/10.63946/ehdi/18794
APA
Zhakhina, G., Akhmedullin, R., Abbay, A., Iskandirova, E., Glushkova, N., Rsaliyeva, Z., Oshibayeva, A., Nuskabaeva, G., Farajov, E., Aljofan, M., Rakisheva, A., & Gaipov, A. (2026). Understanding Cardiovascular Mortality and Disability in Central Asia: A GBD-Based Analysis and Forecast to 2050. Epidemiology and Health Data Insights, 2(4), ehdi044. https://doi.org/10.63946/ehdi/18794
Harvard
Zhakhina, G., Akhmedullin, R., Abbay, A., Iskandirova, E., Glushkova, N., Rsaliyeva, Z., . . . Gaipov, A. (2026). Understanding Cardiovascular Mortality and Disability in Central Asia: A GBD-Based Analysis and Forecast to 2050. Epidemiology and Health Data Insights, 2(4), ehdi044. https://doi.org/10.63946/ehdi/18794
AMA
Zhakhina G, Akhmedullin R, Abbay A, et al. Understanding Cardiovascular Mortality and Disability in Central Asia: A GBD-Based Analysis and Forecast to 2050. Epidemiology and Health Data Insights. 2026;2(4), ehdi044. https://doi.org/10.63946/ehdi/18794
Chicago
Zhakhina, Gulnur, Ruslan Akhmedullin, Anara Abbay, Elmira Iskandirova, Natalya Glushkova, Zhanar Rsaliyeva, Ainash Oshibayeva, Gulnaz Nuskabaeva, Elnur Farajov, Mohamed Aljofan, Amina Rakisheva, and Abduzhappar Gaipov. "Understanding Cardiovascular Mortality and Disability in Central Asia: A GBD-Based Analysis and Forecast to 2050". Epidemiology and Health Data Insights 2026 2 no. 4 (2026): ehdi044. https://doi.org/10.63946/ehdi/18794
MLA
Zhakhina, Gulnur et al. "Understanding Cardiovascular Mortality and Disability in Central Asia: A GBD-Based Analysis and Forecast to 2050". Epidemiology and Health Data Insights, vol. 2, no. 4, 2026, ehdi044. https://doi.org/10.63946/ehdi/18794

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